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| AccuScore World Series Simulations and Scenarios |
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Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst
AccuScore has already simulated Game 1 of the World Series 10,000 times and Josh Beckett continues to dominate the competition. He edges out the Rockies starters in every major pitching category.
With Beckett going at least seven innings, Boston’s relievers and closer, Jonathan Papelbon, shut down Colorado in 69 percent of simulations. The average score is Boston 5.7, Colorado 4.0.
AccuScore has been clamoring nearly as much as Boston fans for the Red Sox to start Jacoby Ellsbury over Coco Crisp since the start of the playoffs. Ellsbury was finally inserted into the lineup and Boston won games six and seven.
Even when both players are playing well, Ellsbury is the better hitter. With Crisp in a clear slump we wanted to see how much better Boston is with Ellsbury starting at center field. Crisp is a fine defensive player but the Red Sox do not lose anything by defensively starting Ellsbury and saving Crisp as a late inning defensive replacement.
The positive offensive impact that Ellsbury provides over Crisp is obvious based on the average statistics the players put up in simulations where both were batting in the eighth spot.
Boston is a solid favorite in Game 1 with either player but Ellsbury’s hot bat and added power gives the Red Sox an additional five percent winning edge.
Can Helton Turn Back the Clock?
Most people are happy for Colorado because Todd Helton finally has a chance at winning the World Series. Even at 34 years old, Helton is a great player batting .320 and driving in 91 runs. In Game 1 simulations vs. the dominant Josh Beckett, Helton is averaging 0.91 hits in 3.92 at bats for a .232 batting average and has a 7.5 percent chance of hitting a big home run. Helton has always been a great hitter but he came to prominence eight years ago when he emerged as a true triple crown threat, consistently hitting over .330, clobbering 40 plus home runs and driving in 140 RBIs from 1999 to 2001. AccuScore factors in a player’s career statistics but obviously weights more recent statistics over stats generated a half decade ago.
What would happen if Helton could turn back the clock? AccuScore ran simulations with Todd Helton’s ’99-01 stats to generate the “younger Todd Helton” playing in simulations vs. Josh Beckett. This younger Helton hit slightly better .235, but the big benefit is in power hitting where he has a 23 percent chance of hitting a home run and leads the team in RBI’s with 0.6 per simulation. The Rockies are still the underdog but their chances of pulling off a huge Game 1 upset goes from 30.3 percent to 35.3 percent. Back to reality, Helton is not 29 and the real Todd Helton who is 34 will be playing on Wednesday.
Boston Winning 69.9 Percent of World Series Simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception, New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philly and Arizona but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 69.4 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and simulations run as of October 22, 2007 data. AccuScore’s proprietary algorithm weights each game’s data and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
Sneak Preview for the Rest of the Series
AccuScore will be using its sports simulation supercomputer to provide a unique perspective on the World Series. Here are a few of the upcoming scenarios we will examine in greater detail:
- Does Boston need Ortiz’s bat in Colorado? Are they better off inserting Ortiz’s bat even if it means benching Kevin Youkilis at first base?
- Colorado’s September run started after starting center fielder Willy Tavares was injured and Ryan Spilborghs took over the position. Should the Rockies go back to that lineup?
- How short a leash should Terry Francona have for Dice-K and Tim Wakefield? Should he pull them after four innings no matter what?
- Should the Rockies intentionally walk Manny every time he’s at bat, even if no one is on base?
what do you think?
26.8%
13.5%